Welcome back to the rankings, which took a week off last week. That gives us more recency bias to chew on than a typical week, and that means a minor shakeup in the Top 5 that features a new number one and the return of an old friend.
But first, let’s do a quick reset on how much things have changed in two weeks, if only to remind us of how much this league and its storylines can pivot in a short time.
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Bonus Five: Important things we missed by taking a week off
1. The Eastern wild-card bubble is now for one spot, not two, and it’s a turtle derby – This isn’t mathematically official, of course, but we’re close enough that we can at least pencil in the Senators for one of those spots. That’s largely because the Senators are finishing strong. But it’s also because the race for that last spot is a turtle derby. If we’re being generous, there are still as many as seven teams in the running for that last spot. Here’s the full list of those teams that have managed to win more than half of their last ten games: (tumbleweed blows by). So the Senators got hot enough to pull away, but everyone else is just jostling around, looking like they don’t especially want to bother.
2. The Western bubble turned out to be way better – We all but wrote off the West months ago, with it looking like it would be a two-team dance between the overachieving Flames and the broken Canucks. But now it looks a lot more like a four-team race, with Utah hanging around and the Blues looking strong down the stretch to hold the hammer. If this keeps up, a few of us Eastern writers might even have to stay up past 9:45 some nights to watch a few of these games.
3. The Presidents’ Trophy is down to two teams – It’s the Capitals and Jets fighting it out. For the Caps, it would be their fourth, which would move them into a tie for the second most in the trophy’s history. For the Jets, it would be the very first for both the franchise and the market. Does anyone care? Not really, especially since the Presidents’ Trophy winner hasn’t won the Cup since 2013, and not in a full season since 2008. But we should celebrate regular-season success more than we do, so let’s at least pretend to be interested.
In related news:
4. Only two divisions are still in play – The Jets and Caps will win the Central and Metro unless something really goes sideways. That leaves the Pacific up for grabs, with the Oilers and Knights battling for top spot. But it’s tough to know what to make of Los Angeles, who have a game in hand but have been up and down all year, and may or may not be a tougher out than the wild-card Wild. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is pretty simple: three good teams in the Panthers, Lightning and Leafs, and two will be forced to face off in round one while the winner probably gets the Senators.
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5. We might get an Art Ross race – This one is still TBD, with Nathan MacKinnon opening up a four-point lead over the injured Leon Draisaitl in what’s probably a two-man race unless Nikita Kucherov goes nuts down the stretch again. MacKinnon and Draisaitl also seem like the front-runners for the Hart Trophy, even though it should go to Connor Hellebuyck. And Draisaitl has already locked up the Rocket Richard, and is one goal away from 50 in a season where he’ll be the only one to hit that milestone. (And yes, that does mean a whole lot of you are screwed in the prediction contest. Don’t think I’ve forgotten.)
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Game of the weekend honors go to the Canadiens and Avalanche:
5. Carolina Hurricanes (43-23-4, +37 true goals differential*) – Their eight-game win streak was snapped on Saturday in a big way in Los Angeles, but they’ve looked good and that first-round matchup with the Devils seems more winnable with each week that goes by. They’re back in the Top 5 for the first time since early February.
4. Vegas Golden Knights (42-20-8, +49) – The Oilers still can’t get going, although that’s largely due to some big injuries that should heal up by the postseason. Still, with those three Atlantic teams refusing to sort anything out, we’ve got room for a Pacific team in our mix.
3. Dallas Stars (44-21-4, +52) – After a brief boost up to the top spot in the wake of the Mikko Rantanen deal, they drop down after just one regulation win in their last eight. Of far bigger concern, with a first-round meeting with the Avalanche looming, is this:
Pete DeBoer says there is a real possibility Dallas might have to play a first round series without Miro Heiskanen.
Miro has been working in the gym but not back on the ice— Bruce LeVine (@BruceLeVinePuck) March 18, 2025
2. Washington Capitals (47-15-8, +78) – Congrats to the Caps on becoming the first team to get the “X” on the standings page, clinching the league’s first playoff spot on Thursday. Meanwhile, we’re down to seven goals to go for Alex Ovechkin’s goal-scoring record chase, which is a bad thing.
1. Winnipeg Jets (48-19-4, +76) – This feature from Murat on Chris Driedger’s roller hockey documentary was a lot of fun. Meanwhile, we’re not too worried about a loss to the Sabres because the Jets still tilted the ice and any loss that comes without Hellebuyck in net doesn’t really count.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
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Not ranked: New York Islanders – Let’s assume you have no dog in the Eastern wild-card fight. Your favorite team isn’t involved, so you’re just watching as a neutral party. If so, you should be rooting for the Blue Jackets, but those hopes have been fading badly since the break. That means you may have shifted your underdog energy towards the Canadiens. Or maybe you figure that Red Wings fans have suffered enough. You might be the sort of fan who wants the star-studded Rangers to find their way in, if only to keep their up-and-down drama going for a few extra weeks. You could even be holding out hope that Sidney Crosby and the Penguins can pull off a miracle.
One thing I’m willing to bet on: You’re not rooting for the Islanders.
You’re not exactly rooting against them, either. If we’re being honest, sometimes you forget they’re even in the race. They can’t really blame you, since they were deadline sellers who seemed to throw in the towel on the season. And that’s fine, because it’s the sort of thing teams do when their best forward is probably out for the year. Even the fan base has given up, with a huge chunk looking for a total tear-down rebuild.
And yet…
Every time you look at those Eastern standings, you get to the Islanders and have that “oh right” moment. They’re coming off a strong week that included wins over the top-tier Panthers, plus an OT win over the Habs team they’re chasing and a point on Saturday against the Flames. They’re right in this thing.
And in a twisted way, you kind of have to love it. Building up to a big dramatic finale only to have the one team nobody’s rooting for emerge with the wild-card spot would be kind of amazing. Maybe it all just leads to another early exit, although at least they’ll miss the Hurricanes in round one this time. Or maybe we all do that thing we did a few years ago, counting the Islanders out and then watching them mow through supposedly better teams once the playoffs start.
If so, they’ll need a little more from Ilya Sorokin, and some consistent offense from forwards who’ve yet to produce a 50-point player. As much as you hate to say it, they probably also need a few more loser points; last week’s OT losses to the Alberta teams were their first single points since the first week in December, ending a streak of 18 losses all coming in regulation, which feels like it should be impossible.
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For now, they’ve got the Blue Jackets tonight in a crucial showdown (and a preview of the final game of the season, but that’s getting ahead of ourselves). Then it’s the Canucks and a tough stretch of Tampa/Carolina/Tampa that’s going to be tough to extract too many points from. For now, they’re still on the outside. But if you’re looking for a late-season bandwagon that’s got some potential, not to mention plenty of good seats available, this just might be the team for you.
The bottom five
The five teams headed towards dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer or someone else.
Quinn Hughes one-on-one against Matt Rempe is just unfair.
(The Rangers still won the game, with help from a late goal from J.T. Miller.)
5. Philadelphia Flyers (28-35-9, -49) – Honestly, you could do worse on a lazy Sunday afternoon than watching two bad teams trade goals in a sloppy, meaningless game. Hey, at least the Flyers scored a few times for a change.
4. Buffalo Sabres (28-35-6, -29) – We’re at that point on the calendar where everyone is completely sick of March-themed brackets, but this one featuring 64 moments from the Sabres’ playoff drought includes entries like “Butt goal,” “Konopka’s rabbit” and “Tim Murray ‘smacking pee pee’ quote,” so we’ll allow it.
And yes, this play from last week is there too:
3. Nashville Predators (26-36-8, -50) – One underrated fun part of rooting for a terrible team: Sending better teams into existential crisis every time you beat them.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (21-41-9, -60) – Hockey gods bless Laz, who is still at least trying to find something positive to say about these guys.
1. San Jose Sharks (19-42-9, -74) – Wait, why didn’t we make Mark Giordano follow Marc-Edouard Vlasic around until he broke his all-time shots blocked record?
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Not ranked: Columbus Blue Jackets – Well, it was fun while it lasted.
The Blue Jackets have been the league’s best story all season long, going from trendy pick for dead last to an impossible playoff push in the wake of unimaginable tragedy. It was impossible not to root for them. A four-game win streak after the 4 Nations break seemed to cement them as legitimate contenders. This was really happening.
But now they’ve lost six in a row, including a tough loss in Pittsburgh over the weekend. The Blue Jackets have just a paltry three points in their last nine games. That’s dropped them down to 11 percent in Dom’s projections yesterday, trailing three teams with only one spot up for grabs. It’s over.
But… is it?
Stay with me here. Yes, this is more of an exercise in coping than anything else, but let’s see if we can find a path for Columbus over the final 13 games. It goes without saying that they’ll need to catch fire over that stretch, with hot goaltending and strong special teams and timely scoring and all of the things that go into a hot streak. There’s no world where a 7-5-1 finish gets them in. We know that.
But when you look at their remaining schedule, you start to wonder. They’ve got a few games against bad teams that will just be playing out the string, like Buffalo, Nashville and Philadelphia. On the flip side, they’ve got first-place Washington twice, but the Caps will already be locked into their spot and might not even have the Ovechkin chase to play for by then. They’ve also got Ottawa three times, which once felt like a wild-card showdown but not any longer because the Sens are basically in. But if they are, and moving up in the Atlantic is off the table, will the Senators be at their best or merely in playoff prep mode?
All of those games feel winnable, for various reasons. That leaves just three games against teams who could still be playing games that matter: Vancouver, Colorado and Toronto. Three good teams, sure, but the Leafs and Canucks haven’t exactly been unbeatable lately.
I mean, if you squint hard enough, you can find some wins in there. Maybe a lot.
It probably won’t be enough. That’s the problem when you’re chasing multiple teams – if even one of them gets hot, it really doesn’t matter what you do. The model’s pessimistic view of the Blue Jackets’ chances seems about right. But 11 percent isn’t zero, and this team has been defying the odds all season long. What’s one more miracle for the team nobody believes in but everyone is rooting for?
We’ll find out, with tonight’s showdown against the Islanders probably qualifying as a must-win. Win it, and let’s see where this goes.
(Photo of Kent Johnson picking up an errant glove: Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images)
Sean McIndoe has been a senior NHL writer with The Athletic since 2018. He launched Down Goes Brown in 2008 and has been writing about hockey ever since, with stops including Grantland, Sportsnet and Vice Sports. His book, "The Down Goes Brown History of the NHL," is available in book stores now. Follow Sean on Twitter @DownGoesBrown
